Here are the 3 most recent deep dives my team and I published:
And here's what caught my eye last week:
Voters turned against data centers almost everywhere they were on the ballot
Marvell's $115 billion bid for Lumentum lost 44% of its value in nine days, and
OpenAI model built working Linux attacks for about $1,279 each
1) Data Centers Lost Nearly Every Local Vote on Election Day
On Nov 3, data centers were on local ballots 41 times in 10 states, and in Ballotpedia's final count, voters favored limiting them in 40, including five outright bans. The only jurisdiction that was supportive of them was Harwood, North Dakota. In Texas, which holds 25% of planned U.S. data-center capacity, voters elected Gina Hinojosa, who takes office in January and has pledged to block every data-center approval until the legislature writes new rules. Nationally, 76% of voters in the NBC News exit poll opposed a new data center in their own community.
Voters under 30 moved furthest of any age group. In NBC News's exit poll, men aged 18 to 29 backed Democratic House candidates 66% to 31%, after splitting 49% to 48% for Trump in 2024. Among voters under 30, 34% called AI data centers crucial to their vote, compared to 23% of all voters.
On Nov 4, the companies paying for the AI build-out rose, Microsoft by 6.7% and Amazon by 6.1%. Bloomberg said investors bet that a Democrat-controlled Congress would slow AI spending that is eating into Big Tech's free cash flow. The companies paid to build it fell: Nvidia, which sells the chips, and Hut 8 and IREN, which build and run data centers for AI. By Friday's close, Microsoft and Amazon were still up from election day even as the S&P 500 fell 2.5%. Our deep dive on neoclouds explains what makes their business model unique, and whether it is durable.
In August I called local opposition to data centers in Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio a powder keg that could cost 2 to 3 percent of annual GDP if it spread. As data centers meet more local resistance, the value of a site that is already permitted and powered goes up. I think permission, local and state, now sits beside chips and power as a limit on how fast AI gets built.
